CES wrap-up

By Charlene Li

Here’s a quick overview of some of the things I picked up after two days at CES.

-         A Tale Of Two Keynotes. I attended both the Yahoo! and Google keynotes and Friday and the contrast was obvious, starting from the music and ending with the celebrities. I have to say, I really enjoyed seeing Tom Cruise during the Yahoo! speech, but felt that it was fairly canned, especially Ellen DeGeneres’ “monologue” about the technical problems she had. The Yahoo! speakers were well rehearsed, but they were, well, rehearsed. In contrast, Larry Page was far from the most dynamic speaker, frequently checking his paper notes. But there was a down to earth quality of his presentation, and the fact that he took many questions from audience members brought a man of the people quality to the keynote. But by far the best part of the Google keynote was Robin Williams’ co-hosting of the Q&A (I thankfully escaped any ribbing when I asked a question!). You couldn’t have asked for better entertainment than the parody of our own questions.

-         Getting trampled. Just one other observation about the keynotes. Maybe it was the 9am start time, maybe it was the company, but the Yahoo! keynote wasn’t full and while the audience was attentive, it wasn’t energized. I was able to walk in, and have nobody else sitting next to me in the balcony. Contrast to the Google keynote, which was near mayhem outside the theater doors just before the start of the keynote. I showed up 15 minutes early, stood in the wrong line (with ticket holders instead of press) and proceeded to get pushed, shoved, and almost trampled by irate ticket holders who couldn’t get in because they had all shown up past the deadline. And there were about 200 more people without tickets hoping to get in anyway at the last minute. The result: I felt very fortunate to finally get in, but was pretty shaken from the mayhem. I knew that the Google keynote was the hottest ticket at CES, but didn’t anticipate just how aggressive people could be.

-         Convergence? Didn’t see it. This show was supposed to be about “convergence” but darn if I couldn’t find it at the show. I haven’t been to CES since 1995, primarily because my research focus is on media and marketing – you know, the stuff that convergence is supposed to bring to devices. The Yahoo! and Google keynotes gave me the excuse to come to Las Vegas and indulge my gadget-loving side, but there was little convergence happening outside of Yahoo’s announcements. The only other interesting example was TiVo’s current online offerings, available on the Series 2 machines (I just ordered one so I’m eager to try it out). TiVo’s CEO Tom Rogers eagerly discussed with a group of reporters its anticipated high definition product (scheduled to be introduced mid-year) which will take advantage of its broadband connection to provide even more online services. While I anticipate more devices to integrate online services, it will be deals like the one between TiVo and Yahoo! that will be core to making such convergence services work for consumers.

-         My favorite gadget. I heard about this one when a TV crew picked me out while I was noshing my lunch outside the main hall with some Forrester colleagues. Interestingly, they wanted to interview me and not my other (male) colleagues because I was a woman. The device: the Connect Io Intelligent Oven that turns on by the Internet or cell phone (and can keep food cool before it turns on). What, were you expecting me to pick a cell phone or HDTV? As a working mom, I thought this was just the coolest thing – I can throw the frozen pizza in the oven in the morning, ping it to preheat and cook the pizza when I pick up my kids, and have pizza on the table in 5 minutes. Now, I just need an applicance that will wash, peel, and cook the veggies for me too!

-         Pedal power in Las Vegas. I rented a bike to get around (photo proof is below) and it totally made the CES experience enjoyable. (My collegue Josh Bernoff did the same). I was able to get from my hotel on the Strip (Harrah’s) to the convention center in 10 minutes – and that includes abiding by all traffic lights. Racking the bike is easy – there are stands right outside Central Hall (Sands is a bit trickier – the only rack I could find was in the back in the service entrance). And visiting other hotels around town is easy – simply check the back in at the Bell Desk. Las Vegas Cyclery makes it easy by dropping off/picking up the bike from your hotel. Only other recommendations: bring your own helmet and wear reflective clothing.

Google Pack's real innovation is Updater

By Charlene Li

On Friday at CES, Google unveiled Google Pack (along with the new Google Video Store – for more details on the video announcement, check out my colleague Josh Bernoff’s blog post). Besides downloading a whole suite of useful security, communication, and entertainment utilities, Pack also happens to make available all of Google’s applications, from Toolbar to Picasa.

What’s interesting to me about Pack is that it’s an innovation on an existing practice – the bundling of third-party software by ISPs like AOL, Earthlink, MSN, and Yahoo!. But in this case, Google is offering Pack free and unbundled from any ISP service, all in the name of improving the user experience.

But the real beauty behind Pack is Updater, the little program that automatically installs and updates the software. (In fact, it’s installing Pack right now as I’m writing this post I Word and posting it via TypePad – the computer hangs every once in a while, which is annoying, but for the most part, I see no degradation in my PC’s performance.) Once installed on the PC, Google has a direct conduit to the user’s desktop, which will be extremely valuable in pushing its own applications (current and future). Think of it as the next front in the portal/search wars to tie in user loyalty.

I believe that this opens up some interesting opportunities. First, software makers will be clamoring to be included in Pack, but will have to first get through Google’s review. In addition, companies like Dell may be interested in including Updater on new PCs to make that initial install of software much easier. Lastly, I fully expect AOL, Yahoo!, and Microsoft (which has Windows Updater already) to jump into the fray. After all, they already have existing relationships with third-party software providers that they can turn to.

But most significantly, I believe this changes the nature of the relationship between Google and the user. As I mentioned at the end of my last post, I believe that Google has up to this point been regarded more as a utility (albeit, a really, really useful one) than as the lynchpin of an online experience. But with Pack and Updater specifically, the user now not only becomes dependent on Google to smooth the experience, but also places a great deal of trust in Google to do the right thing – everything from choosing the right software to include to making sure that updates are bug-free.

One thing I think that will ensure that Google maintains that user trust is to increase the scope of the software being offered, and to be more transparent about why it decided to include one software option over the other. In a post-CES speech press conference, Larry Page couldn’t give a definitive reason why Pack decided to include only RealNetwork’s RealPlayer – but he did say that Google was open to including multiple software types in an area like media players to enable consumer choices. I would love to see iTunes and Internet Explorer included – I have to use IE for work-related applications – but I wonder just how open Google would be to including competitors products. In the end, if Google is truly committed to improving the end user’s experience, it would strike deals with the most popular and useful applications, regardless of whether it comes from a competitor or not.

Yahoo! Go shows how to connect the Internet to devices

Yahoo! announced its new Yahoo! Go suite, which consists of Yahoo! Go Mobile, Yahoo! Go TV, and Yahoo! Go Desktop. I think it’s significant because Yahoo! shows how a traditional Internet content and service provider can link to devices like phones and TVs. Here’s a quick overview and specific highlights:

-         The Yahoo! Go concept: Anything that you can access on Yahoo! through your browser will also be available on your desktop (outside of your browser), on your phone, and on your TV.

-         Yahoo! Go Mobile is a really nice connection between your phone and your Yahoo service. Snap a photo and have it appear on Yahoo! Photos (Finally! An easy way to get photos off of my camera phone). A phone number you enter on Yahoo! Addresses shows up on your phone’s address book. I personally LOVE this idea of a universal contact list, especially as I am prone to losing my cell phone!

-         Yahoo! Go Desktop is a repositioning of Yahoo! Widgets (a.k.a. Konfabulator) to puts individual services directly on the desktop. Yahoo! also announced Dashboard, which is very similar to Google Sidebar and MSN’s Dashboard (available only to MSN ISP customers). One key improvement: the user can see activities from people on their buddy lists, for example, a new post on Yahoo! 360 or Web page tagged via Yahoo! My Web. This is similar to the connectivity within Windows Live which taps into Messenger to show “gleams” of activity by your buddies.

-         Yahoo! Go TV which puts music playlists and Yahoo’s video search on the TV. It’s great especially for showing a slideshow of your Yahoo! Photos on the big screen. I didn’t find this rendition that compelling (nice, just not compelling). But tucked away in the corner of the demonstrations was a concept screen that showed how content like RSS feeds and Yahoo! entertainment content could be integrated on to the television. For example, if you’re watching a football game, go and check your sports feeds. If you’re watching a movie, go and get more information about the star, what other movies they are in, or even purchase the DVD on Yahoo! shopping (see the screenshots I’ve uploaded below -- note that one of the screenshots includes an in-line add for a Howard Stern show.) The compelling idea is that you can customize the television experience with content from the Web.   

A few thoughts on these announcements:

-         Compared to the reported announcements (via WSJ) from Google later today, Yahoo!’s Go announcements have a strong connection to consumer electronics and will have a much bigger impact over time than either Google Video or Google Pack. This is because it sets off a race among phone and device makers to tap into the Yahoo!’s large user base. But it’s also worrying because the investment that service providers have made in their own services is now to tie in users becomes less important if the user can take their services with them from phone to phone, provider to provider. I believe that device manufacturers will be more willing than their provider counterparts to let users choose between Yahoo!, Microsoft, and Google mobile solutions – or mix and match as they please.

-         Go Mobile in particular expands Yahoo’s reach beyond the desktop – Yahoo! stated that there are 2 billion mobile phone users around the world, compared to 900 million Internet users). To this point, Yahoo! allows for the first time new sign-ups to a Yahoo! account via Go Mobile.

-         Yahoo!’s promise to keep the platform open will be closely watched. At the conclusion of his speech, Terry Semel said “Personally, I believe that walled gardens are a thing of the past.” But what Yahoo! is doing is in many ways constructing a different kind of walled garden, albeit, one where Yahoo! serves as the gateway to the world of Internet content. For example, Yahoo! Go Mobile will allows users to access non-Yahoo! email accounts, as long as they are POP enabled. But this has to be set up via Yahoo! Mail and in this case, through Yahoo!’s paid Mail Plus service.

To put all of these announcements in perspective, I had an interesting discussion with Cammie Dunaway, Yahoo!’s CMO. She said, “Users don’t have an emotional bond with Google. But they have one with us.” To some degree, I agree with her on this. Google has a strong brand and has built a great deal of trust and goodwill thanks to its great search experience. But I don’t have my have my life on Google – it’s actually on Yahoo!. (Disclosure: My photos are on Yahoo! and Flickr, tags are on del.icio.us, personal email (and domain) are on Yahoo!, and I use Yahoo! Local and Maps regularly.) This could change as Google and Microsoft increase and improve their services, but it will take a lot to tear me away from my established habits. Having Yahoo! now also available on my devices potentially increases that stickiness.

My colleague Josh Bernoff, who is here at CES with me, used a car analogy to illustrate this. Yahoo! is like a tricked out Lincoln Navigator – it has everything you could ever want, from the DVD player and is comfortable to boot. You practically live in that car. Google’s car representation would be the Prius, which is environmental – its users have an emotional attachment to it for a completely different reason.

So here’s my question to you, dear blog readers. Do you have an emotional attachment to Google, or any other portal/search service? To what degree can Yahoo!, Google, Microsoft, AOL, et. al. develop that bond with you? Or is it not about emotional attachments and all about utility. Would love to get your perspective, either in comments or directly via email.  

Quick thoughts on the Google/AOL Deal

By Charlene Li

I'm on my way out the door for a few weeks of vacation (and I don't plan to blog or check work email!) but wanted to share a few quick thoughts about the supposed Google/AOL search deal.

- The deal doesn't change the overall industry much, with the exception that AOL now has the sweet deal of selling into Google directly. It's pretty much continuation of the status quo and AOL went with the safe, proven incumbent.

- I had a chance to talk with Sergey Brin at the Google Holiday dinner on Tuesday and he (as well as other executives) were tight lipped about any negotiations (surprise surprise). As the WSJ pointed out, Google charged into the talks once they got wind that Microsoft was trying to woo AOL away. I'm not surprised that Google upped the stakes by making an investment in AOL -- what's amazing to me is they thought it was worth $1 billion. I think losing AOL wasn't so much a financial issue as it was one of ego -- there was no way Google was going to let Microsoft beat it at anything as high profile as a major partnership.

- It appears the MSFT/AOL deal fell apart because they were TOO similar and had too many conflicts that couldn't be worked out. As I noted in a previous post, the deal made a great deal of sense on paper but any cooperation on the content front would have been a nightmare. Google/AOL is much cleaner and synergistic, as Google is happy to direct traffic to AOL content.

- Speaking of content, it’s not clear what AOL is getting in terms of preferred placement on Google search results. This is extremely important, as it will be the first time Google gives any sort of preferential treatment to content because of a business development deal, or, even worse in this case, because of an investment in the company. It brings up tremendous conflict of interest issues – is that AOL Madonna video in the search results because it’s the most relevant result or because it’s part of the AOL deal?

- And don’t count MSFT out yet because they (apparently) lost this deal. adCenter has a lot going for it and will be the foundation for the new Windows Live and Office Live offerings. The AOL deal would have been a tremendous validation of the product, but in the end, its performance will speak for itself.

Happy holidays, and I’ll catch you in the new year.

Yahoo! buys del.icio.us, puts tagging on the map

By Charlene Li

Yahoo! announced that it will purchase del.icio.us (posts by Yahoo! and del.icio.us give the details).

For those of you in the know, del.icio.us is a social bookmarking service that allows its users to “tag” Web pages with short notes and save them on a centralized service. I’ve been using del.icio.us off and on for the past few months and just this morning set up a linkblog for this blog. Little did I know…

The acquisition by Yahoo! is significant for much the same reason why it bought other social computing darlings, Flickr and Konfabulator – Yahoo! is laying the groundwork for its users to add, personalize, and contribute their content and votes to the Web.

A very significant point is that del.icio.us will be working closely with Yahoo! Search. This is important because tagging will key to creating better search. Today, search relevance is determined by the number of links between pages – the more links you have to a page, the more relevant you are. Tagging is another way of doing this – you can see it in action today on start-up tagging engines like Wink and Raw Sugar. Tags on Web pages provide an additional level of relevancy to that page, and Yahoo! will be in a prime position to leverage it.

But tagging in of itself isn’t enough – it’s also the reputation of the taggers that’s important. And here is where the rest of Yahoo! formidable assets come to play – with 191 million registered users, social networking in the form of Y! 360, and personalized Web experiments with MyWeb, Yahoo! has the suite to actually pull off a really cool social and personalized search service.

The key: making del.icio.us and tagging accessible to users. It took me a while to “get” del.icio.us, (and the URL still isn’t easy for me to type!) The key problem is this is not an interface that my mother – or for that matter, most of my techie friends – understands. (Dave Taylor put together a good primer on “What’s so cool about del.icio.us?” that’s a good intro – check out the last question where Dave asks Jeremy Zawodny if Yahoo! will buy del.icio.us).

For this reason, I’m thrilled that Yahoo! purchased del.icio.us and hopefully, will integrate it into its other services quickly. I’m also optimistic about the impact that social bookmarking and tagging will have on the search industry…look for Microsoft and Google to launch their own variations soon as well. But Yahoo!, with its millions of registered users AND an enthusiastic del.icio.us community (check on the comments on the announcement – they are universally ecstatic), Yahoo! will be setting the pace in this area.

I’m also including a few thoughts from my colleague, Chloe Stromberg, who is an active del.icio.us user and resident social computing guru:

Other media companies are still mulling over their position with social media, meanwhile Yahoo has quickly and assertively snapped up another key player in the social computing space.  This means that 1) the ingredient technologies that make up social media (RSS, tagging, search, etc) will work more seamlessly together; and 2) that social computing is being taken to the masses by a company that knows UI, marketing, and has a trusted relationship with valuable consumers.

For marketers, Yahoo’s decisive acquisitions in the social marketing space mean that social marketing is destined to move out of the experimental stage and become a more stable part of the marketing mix.

Another interesting point here is about timing -- the speed of technology adoption.  Social marketing technologies have their roots in the birth of the Internet (we’ve mentioned Firefly, PointCast, etc).  It may be that after *10 years*, consumers are actually catching on, and really getting some of the principles of what the Internet can do that other communication forms can’t.  This is like 3rd wave social computing, personalization, customization -- and Yahoo has been involved all along.  It’s just, finally, this time, it may be ready for prime time.

Yahoo! Answers life’s questions

By Charlene Li

Yahoo! Answers launched today at answers.yahoo.com. The service allows users to 1) ask questions; 2) answer them; and 3) discover and browse through all of the answered questions that others have posed.

Here are a few great examples of the helpful (and the esoteric) Q&A taking place.

-         What’s the best microphone or headset for recording a podcast?

-         Where is a good place to live in or near San Jose, CA?

-         Why doesn’t Hello Kitty have a mouth?

The service is free, and even more importantly, is really easy to use. Questions are grouped into categories, there’s a search to find more answers, and best of all, there’s a reputation/feedback system built in.

Compare this to Google Answers or specialty sites like Guru.com – both of these sites are paid services, which makes it a lot more cumbersome to use and also raises the stakes for both the asker and the answerer. By keeping it free, Yahoo! keeps it light but also pretty darn useful. Also, the universe expands tremendously with Yahoo’s service – Google says it has something like 500 pre-vetted answerers while Guru.com serves as an intro to freelancers.

How will Yahoo! benefit? Well, I don’t think they were leaving much money on the table by foregoing the ability to charge. In fact, there’s probably quite a bit more opportunity in the form of advertising, especially since advertisers could potentially buy ad inventory in specific categories or target ads by specific keywords.

Two other ways Yahoo! benefits: 1) It encourages users to become active, participating Yahoo! community members; and 2) it creates new content that can be indexed and searched by Yahoo! (as well as other search engines).

One key area to watch: local advice. This has the potential of causing a huge dent in start-ups like Insider’s Guide or Judy’s Book, primarily because it’s so easy to use and doesn’t require forming a formal social network. I fully expect Yahoo! to integrate Answers into Yahoo! Local in the near future.

Yahoo! expands RSS services to Mail (beta) and Alerts

By Charlene Li

Yahoo! announced that it will be extending its current RSS capabilities in two areas:

1)      Yahoo! Alerts will now be RSS enabled. This means that when a new item is posted to a feed, a Yahoo! user can have the post be sent as an Alert to email, Yahoo! Messenger, or via SMS to a mobile phone. So I can now add an RSS feed, like a search on Yahoo! News for mentions of my name, as an Alert and have it delivered in the channel of my choice. This will be great for those Craig's List RSS feeds where it's a competitive advantage to find out about hot items like tickets or apartments quickly.

2)      The new Yahoo! Mail beta will also be RSS enabled. Users can add feeds directly into the Mail interface, or if they have feeds already set up in My Yahoo!, they will automatically replicate within Mail. Each post acts like an individual email – it can be forwarded, sorted into folders, and deleted. I’ve included a screenshot from my Mail account.

In my conversation with Scott Gatz from Yahoo!, he emphasized that Yahoo!’s goal is to integrate RSS access anywhere it makes sense, and to integrate it into experiences they already know.

I’m thrilled! I’ve long wanted to have my RSS feeds integrated in with email, but the plug-ins from players like NewsGator and Attensa mess up my Outlook in a terrible way. This has more to do with the way Forrester has set up Outlook than with the vendors’ software and services – I know many happy, satisfied users of both of those products.

The integration into Mail is an obvious improvement over MyYahoo! – it’s where people already spend a lot of time gathering and sharing information, and more importantly, it’s a familiar interface. One of my biggest problems with RSS is just remembering to go and read it – starting up FeedDemon or browsing over to Bloglines just doesn’t work that well for me. Even Google Sidebar doesn’t get used that much anymore because I find I have to frequently minimize it to use common work applications like our CRM system or Webex.

And good news on the Yahoo! Mail beta – Yahoo! said that they would be starting to pull people off the waiting list “soon” and “slowly”. So if you haven’t already, sign up for the beta!

Update: Lots of posts around but for the inside scoop direct from Yahoo!, listen to John Furrier's PodTech Network interview with Scott Gatz and Ethan Diamond about the announcement. A great use of podcasting technology.

Google pays for Firefox and AdSense

By Charlene Li

Last Friday, Google's AdSense program announced that it will pay publishers if they refer new sign-ups to AdSense through an ad on their sites. Even more interesting, AdSense will also pay publishers if they get users to download Firefox with the Google Toolbar. More information is available at https://www.google.com/adsense/referrals. Referral fees will be $100 per AdSense sign-up and $1 for each instance when a download of Firefox is run for the first time.

What got my attention is that Google is paying for distribution of its Toolbar. This is need for distribution is similar to why Google struck a deal with Sun to distribute Toolbar. It's also a great way for Firefox to increase its distribution base. More from Firefox also has its take on the announcement. 

I was at a meeting on Thursday evening with Mitchell Baker and John Lilly from Mozilla Foundation where they said that Firefox now had 14% share of the US browser market. Firefox has long encouraged its base to include graphics to promote others download Firefox. But Google's AdSense now gives it an opportunity to pay site owners to do this, which will only further encourage the Firefox's marketing and distribution. While it's not officially stated, it's pretty clear that Google is footing the bill.

I expect to see Firefox cut more deals like this in the future -- John Lilly is in charge of business development and his goal is to double the Firefox penetration over the next year.

Microsoft’s “Live” strategy is a good and smart move

By Charlene Li

I was at the launch event for Windows Live and Office Live on Tuesday morning and have been running ever since, so apologies for not posting this sooner. I wrote a Forrester piece on this (subscription required). Here’s the executive summary:

Microsoft has embraced a new way to do business — a mindset that is based on software-as-a service, open platforms, and continuous innovation; a model previously mastered by Google. Ad-supported software for consumers and very small businesses is only the beginning. Microsoft's real aim is to build and host a service platform that will attract the investment of developers looking for a way to reach these market sectors. It is also a foray into offering its traditional client/server software to customers on a hosted or on-demand basis. Forrester believes that these "Live" services won't cannibalize Microsoft's existing software revenues and instead will drive significant upside as Microsoft develops new advertising and subscription revenues. However, it has tried this before and failed. The strategy will be successful only if Microsoft offers its partners a ready market, a fair revenue sharing scheme, and a strong support system that develops trust.

I’m going to tackle what I think about this development in a Q&A format to reflect the many questions I’ve been asked over the past few days.

Q: Is MSN being sidelined, with popular services like Hotmail, Messenger, and the personal home page moving to Windows Live?

A: Just the opposite, I see MSN becoming more focused. MSN has long suffered an identity crisis, mixing communication services and content together. By removing the communications portion, MSN can focus on a great user experience that brings together great content. And they have great content – MSN Autos is one of the best and biggest in the industry, Zone is an addictive gaming site that attracts loads of women (be sure to check out Bejeweled 2). In fact, the rumors of MSN and AOL working together make a lot more sense if MSN is focused primarily on the content experience. Moreover, MSN is extremely important to the strategy as its core advertiser base will be the primary revenue source for the Live products. Think of them creating an ad network for both display and search/text ads across their various networks.

Q: Are ad supported services going to work? Will they be enough to support this strategy?

A: One of the biggest challenges – and unanswered questions -- to the whole Live strategy will what kind of ads will appear on Windows Live and Office Live. Microsoft could suffer a Google Gmail-like backlash if the ads are contextually keyed to personal information on Windows Live. Ads that key off of feeds and gadget settings like zip codes are probably OK. But advertising driven by my email or calendar entries will be a no-no. (The alternative view: Gmail users don’t seem phased by it, or at the least, they trust Google – more on that below).

Q: Is this going to cannibalize Microsoft’s core software and enterprise revenues?

A: Not anytime soon. Office Live is targeted at a very different audience – small businesses with less than 10 employees – that today don’t buy Microsoft’s varied enterprise solutions. And they won’t anytime soon because they don’t a) have the IT resources, and b) they don’t need these mission critical solutions. That’s why a hosted solution is ideal for them, and Office Live’s initial 22 applications will address many of them.

Q: Microsoft talked about having an open platform for developers. Is Microsoft really going to be open about this, or are they going to stick it to developers in the future?

A: This is by far the biggest deal in terms of the announcement, and probably the most poorly expressed part too. I believe Microsoft is fully embracing hosted services and supporting developers, and more importantly, now have different mindset in how they approach the market. Sure, they would still love to be central your personal and work life (that IS what Windows and Office Live are about, after all), but they know they can’t do it alone. This is especially true with Google and Yahoo! breathing down their necks. While not yet available, the APIs will allow developers to build on the Live platforms, leveraging all of the communication, payment, and identity systems that have already been built. Let’s take Office Live as an example – it will launch with 22 applications available for a subscription fee, and all of those applications are Microsoft developed. Developers could build a light app directly into Office Live and tap immediately into a broad audience. Moreover, there’s a built in revenue model, with users paying a few months more to get access to the service. Contrast that to a business enterprise software developer today who has to build everything pretty much from scratch – and then build a marketing, sales, and distribution organization on top of it as well. The outcome: we’ll see lots of innovation for a market that historically has seen been given hand-me down technology solutions. We’ll see the inevitable list of complaints from developers who want nothing to do with Microsoft – in fact, Robert Scoble listed 12 reasons why this is the case.

This brings me to the issue of trust, on both the part of developers and end users. Both will have to trust that Microsoft understands their needs and won’t abuse the relationship. What strikes me as ironic is that if you replaced “Microsoft” with “Google”, an announcement like Live would have drawn universal praise. “Google creates home page that puts users at the center of the experience.” “Google will power enterprise apps for small businesses.” “Google builds open platform for developers within new services”.

Key to building that trust will be explaining what the heck Live is to many different constituents. And if you think it’s just Microsoft/MSN catching up on to Google and Yahoo!, you’re not thinking big enough. Think of Live becoming the foundation for a totally different experience, where your information will live in the infamouse “cloud” and where you’ll be completely device and channel agnostic. A former executive at Forrester, Emily Green, was fond of saying, “The Web is my filing cabinet.” Well, I think Live is potentially Microsoft’s manifestation of that experience.

Google Base – it’s more than just classifieds and listings

By Charlene Li

The news is out (thanks to the WSJ – subscription required) that Google Base, the long-anticipated Google classifieds and listings service, made a fleeting debut. The site (base.google.com) is now down, but there are a few screenshots floating around (see below for links). Here’s what the original page had in terms of text before it was taken down:

“Post your items on Google.

Google Base is Google’s database into which you can add all types of content. We’ll host your content and make it searchable online for free.

Examples of items you can find in Google Base:

• Description of your party planning service
• Articles on current events from your website
• Listing of your used car for sale
• Database of protein structures

You can describe any item you post with attributes, which will help people find it when they search Google Base. In fact, based on the relevance of your items, they may also be included in the main Google search index and other Google products like Froogle and Google Local.”

The WSJ’s take is that this is Google’s assault on eBay. Others will be sure to look at it as a way to link classifieds and the anticipated Google Wallet. But I think it’s actually much, much bigger. Google’s main search index relies on spiders to crawl the Web and the much bally-hooed Page Rank system to understand relevancy. Neither work well in a database environment where pages are generated dynamically and linked pages don’t exist. I believe this is Google’s way to not only build a lucrative listings business but also to flesh out other areas like Froogle and Local with deep content that’s otherwise inaccessible or just plain doesn’t exist.

But what’s interesting to me is that rather than scrape existing databases, Google is going to encourage people, businesses, and organizations to submit their listings directly to Google. This avoids any potential “cease and desist” orders like the one that Oodle.com recently received from Craigslist.org for scrapping its listings. By actually owning a structured database that’s clean from the start (no need for de-duping scripts like those employed by Indeed.com and SimplyHired.com), Google can focus on what it does best – getting loads of consumers and businesses to use its services. Just a point of comparison – Craigslist.org had 4.8 million visitors in the US in September, a drop in the bucket compared to the kind of traffic that Google can drive.

What are the implications? First, it will be a while before Google Base becomes a category killer, but it will exert pressure in much the same way that online job boards like Monster.com have been squeezing print recruitment classifieds for the past 11 years. The likes of Monster, CareerBuilder, and HotJobs didn’t have to worry much about start-ups like Indeed.com and SimplyHired, but when Google comes along and integrates database listings into general search results, then job boards should start worrying. This is because job-related search terms are a growing part of search revenues, with savvy company recruiters already advertising on those keywords (do a search on “technology jobs” and see who’s advertising).

Second, I would expect at some point for Google to tie self-publishing (e.g. Blogger), Google Groups, and Google Base together. For example, I could publish to my blog in a structured format (yes, this is akin to structured blogging), add some tags and have it appear on both my blog and also in Google Base where it can be populated throughout Google. So if I’m selling my car, I can choose a Google Base template and voila, I’m published throughout the Google Network.