OLPC introduces the social computer

by Josh Bernoff

I got briefed Friday, along with other analysts and reporters, on Nicholas Negroponte's OLPC (one laptop per child) initiative. This has been covered in some detail by the Boston Globe and AP/Yahoo. Jupiter's Michael Gartenberg, who sat next to me, has his commentary here. Here's what I wrote after interviewing Negroponte at the Forrester Digital Consumer Forum last year.

Before I get into the social aspects of the machine (it's called the XO) and why it could change everything, you should know a few things that make this machine unique. First, nearly every element of the OS is open-source, from Linux to the apps. Second, it's designed for use in the most adverse conditions, where electricity can come from a hand-powered adapter or a $10 solar panel. And third, it's distributed in a completely unique way. There is no distribution cost, there is no profit (at least for OLPC itself). A country like Libya orders a million units, and Citibank handles the financing and letters of credit, acquiring the money and distributing it to every member of the supply chain, from Quanta that's assembling it to AMD that's making the processors.

This is the make-or-break time for OLPC. Negroponte and his team have been flying to all parts of the world and hosting countries in Cambridge, Mass., hoping to get to the 3 million units in commitments needed to get the supply chain cranking for delivery in the second half of 2007. Critics and naysayers are buzzing, especially since the price has gone up from the nominal $100 at the launch to $176 now. Microsoft has hit back with $3 pricing for Windows and apps in the developing world, and Intel has produced its own low-cost PC, the ClassMate, for these markets.

But what's on my mind is this: what if OLPC succeeds?

The XO laptop is designed for social computing. It is the social computer. One of the main apps is a screen that shows who else in the village is online -- in fact, the whole system gets its Internet access from a mesh so that if one XO in the village can reach the net (presumably from a classroom or some other central location, often by satellite), the others can all reach it too through their own connections. Every single app is designed for sharing, so you and you friends can work on a project together -- a book, a blog, a picture -- and then come back to it and work more later. All of your work is backed up to a Google server.

Now imagine 500 million kids in the poorest parts of the world, all of whom are learning that computers mean social. People say today's Millennials in developed countries have internalized the connected Web-based world in way us old fogies can't understand, but these OLPC kids are going to make even that experience look positively 20th century. Everything they need, they'll get from each other -- news, software, a window on the world. If the next Linus Torvalds is in Nigeria somewhere, she can change the world with a new open-source breakthrough for creative collaboration, or gaming simulations, or political organizing -- and some kid in Brazil will debug it. There will be no more boundaries.

I'm looking forward to learning the true meaning of social computing from children around the world. I just hope they get the chance to show me.

Tags: OLPC, XO, Nicholas Negroponte, Social Computer, bernoff, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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Yahoo! buys Right Media, a smart move to defend its online ad leadership

by Charlene Li

I just posted on the acquisition of Right Media by Yahoo! on Forrester's Marketing Blog, primarily to keep the discussion/comments there for that audience. But I know that some of you follow the advertising/portal space closely so thought you'd like to know about the detailed post.

From a social technologies perspective, there are two things to point out.

First, Right Media could be an interesting alternative to AdSense, specifically for graphical display ads. The distinguishing characteristic is that CPM rates are visible to both the publisher and advertiser. This gives site and blog owners the ability to optimize each and every impression.

Second, Yahoo! has a strong audience of social computing-adept users via acquisitions like Flickr and del.icio.us, but doesn't aggressively monetize them on those sites. One of the opportunities Right Media  could offer is the ability to serve ads to users when they are off the Yahoo! site.

For example, someone who views content about hybrid cars on Yahoo! can be served ads from Toyota for the Prius. That user may then leave Yahoo! and go over to Treehugger.com to read more about environmental news and products. If treehugger.com is a member of the Right Media exchange (this is a hypothetical example), it could potentially serve ads to that hybrid-interested buyer from Yahoo! advertisers (like Toyota) on treehugger.com. The ad exchange would serve as the trusted intermediary to identify the users and serve the ads -- without actually exchange data about that user. As with other behavioral ad networks like Tacoda, such a system would need to have multiple privacy and content safeguards in place.

For blogs that draw a unique audience, this could be highly lucrative. Treehugger.com already draws an audience that is pre-disposed to buying a Prius, but doesn't know who is a potential car buyer unless that user lands on Treehugger's car/transportation section. By passing along that interest, Yahoo! makes it possible for Treehugger to realize a higher CPM for that run-of-site impression, while Yahoo! gets an additional ad impression to sell it Toyota.

Tags: Yahoo, Right Media, charleneli, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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Forrester’s new Social Technographics report

By Charlene Li

We just released a new report that Josh and I wrote, titled "Social Technographics". Here's the executive summary:

Many companies approach social computing as a list of technologies to be deployed as needed – a blog here, a podcast there – to achieve a marketing goal.  But a more coherent approach is to start with your target audience and determine what kind of relationship you want to build with them, based on what they are ready for. Forrester categorizes social computing behaviors into a ladder with six levels of participation; we use the term "Social Technographics" to describe analyzing a population according to its participation in these levels. Brands, Web sites, and any other company pursuing social technologies should analyze their customers' Social Technographics first, and then create a social strategy based on that profile.

At the heart of Social Technographics is consumer data that looks at how consumers approach social technologies – not just the adoption of individual technologies. We group consumers into six different categories of participation – and participation at one level may or may not overlap with participation at other levels. We use the metaphor of a ladder to show this, with the rungs at the higher end of the ladder indicating a higher level of participation.

For example, 13% of US online adult consumers are "Creators" meaning that they have posted to a blog, updated a Web page, or uploaded video they created within the last month. I would fall this group because of this blog. I'm also an avid user of services like del.icio.us so would be a "Collector" as well. But I'm not really active on social networking sites – I'm there mostly for professional reasons, not personal ones, so wouldn't be a "Joiner". Lastly, while I enjoy reading environmental blogs like Treehugger, I'm mostly a "Spectator" when it comes to that content area, although I occasionally add a comment here and there.

The value of Social Technographics comes when it's used by companies to create their social strategies. For example, in the report we look at how Social Technographics profiles differ by primary life motivation, site usage, and even PC ownership. 

The report also lays out how companies can create strategies using Social Technographics. For example, I've used the "participation ladder" to help figure out which social strategies to deploy first – and also how to encourage users to "climb up", so to speak, from being Spectators to becoming more engaged. It's my belief that not everyone is cut out from the start to be a Creator; nor is everyone inclined to jump with both feet into social networking. Companies seeking to engage customers with these new tools need to understand where their audiences are with this categorization.

I'll be holding a Teleconference on this topic on Tuesday, April 24 2007 at 1pm EST – more details are available at http://www.forrester.com/Teleconference/Overview/1,5158,1848,00.html (note: there is a charge for non-Forrester clients).

Also, if you are a blogger in this space and would like to have a review copy of the report, please send an email to Tracy Sullivan [tsullivan at forrester.com] with your name and URL of your blog. I'd love to get feedback on how useful you find this approach. Update: If your blog is affiliated with a sizable company, you may be getting a friendly call or email from a Forrester salesperson to see if you're interested in receiving more research from Forrester. This is because I need to walk a fine line between giving away our research to potential customers and providing review copies for bloggers. Hope you understand, and let me know if you have any questions about this. 

Tags: social technographics, charleneli, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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The best email marketing I ever got

by Josh Bernoff

I call people out when their marketing is lame. Now I'd like to show you the best pitch I got in the last six months.

Four years ago I rented a villa in Provence for a few weeks for my whole family. If that sounds great, well, it was. I have very fond memories of the time I spent there. I found the property on a site called rentvillas.com and yes, I'd use them again.

Rentvillas' problem is this: their customers may not think of going back to them again, since it's typically years between visits. So they sent me this email.

Now our email expert Shar Van Boskirk could tell you all about what email works -- how frequently you can touch people, what kinds of things to say, what kinds of software to use, all of that. But this email is somehow different.

1. It's completely different from every other sales email I've ever gotten since it doesn't go right at the problem.

2. It taps into the uneasiness every American feels about vacationing in a foreign country, and reminds us that that's part of the adventure.

3. They send me maybe three emails a year, so they don't tax my patience -- they're timed just right for people planning a vacation.

But somehow, this marketing email actually managed to stimulate the nostalgia I had for that trip, and generating an emotion like that from an email is just spectacular.

As Nikki HootonHootman, who wrote this email, told me, "The interesting thing is that we actually tried a much more "professional" looking format with a very nice visual element... but we discovered that people treated it like a mass mailer you might get from Amazon.com or another huge company. When we just use plain text and a photo or two, people consider it much more personal."

Marketers, my advice is not to emulate what rentvillas did. My advice is to emulate how they think, tapping into the emotions of your customers with whatever is special about your product. And if nothing is special about your product, quit and find a better place to work.

From: Rentvillas.com
To: Josh Bernoff
Re: Rentvillas.com -- My lunch hour crisis

Joshua,

As I wander through the picturesque main street of tiny Castellina-in-Chianti, I find myself a bit dismayed. It's 2 PM, and I'm famished. In America this wouldn't be a problem, but here in Italy I'm faced with empty streets and closed doors. That's right: lunch is over, and everyone is fast asleep.

Where was I at noon? I was photographing Podere Cristina, the most family-friendly accommodation I've ever seen. Younger guests are welcome to play with the outdoor toys and splash in the pool, while adults will appreciate the window screens (rare in Italy) and terrace views. Everyone who visits raves, which is why I was assigned to bring back some better shots. Check out Earth, Air, Fire, and Water-- believe it or not, there's still some availability for this year.



Back to Castellina. Eureka! At a corner grocer's, I find an open door. The proprietor, a middle-aged woman with a farmer's rough hands, takes pity and puts together a crude Panini. I point to some olives bigger than my eyeballs and she adds them to my bag. I take my "American" lunch hour on a bench in the sun, grinning as an old Italian gentleman ambles by and, seeing my impromptu picnic, laughs. So what if I'm stuck on American time? I'm still having fun!

After lunch, I realize that the directions to my next destination didn't make it into my bag. So I start driving. Four kilometers out of Castellina, a sign flashes by. Is that what I think it is? I pull over and turn around. Hallelujah! It is! Lago Antico, a brand new addition to our catalogue, is a cluster of medieval-era buildings-- complete with two-foot-thick walls, pigeon-hole windows, quirky corners, and a subterranean barrel-ceiling wine cellar. Here, the view is unique: forested mountains, completely untouched, extend as far as the eye can see.

That evening, I sit in the rustic kitchen of Lago Antico Uno, chatting with the manager as Stefano (a local chef) prepares one of the best meals I'll ever eat, using award-winning organic olive oil made right outside. Turns out he's not just a culinary genius; he's a pacifist too: several wasps have managed to sneak in, and one by one he captures them and frees them outside.

In spite of my lunch-hour crisis, this is one of the most satisfying days of my trip. The icing on the cake comes the next morning, when I wake up and peer outside. Dawn is just breaking, illuminating mountaintops and casting a pink glow on the mist-enshrouded valleys below. The world is silent. Bellissimo.

Until next time,

Nikki Hootman
Writer/Editor, Rentvillas.com


P.S. Here are a few more properties you might want to check out if you're still looking for availability this year:
- Our favorite apartment in Florence
- A fully equipped villa for family or friends, south of Siena
- An Italian lakes villa with a picturesque terrace
- Lemon-scented sea views at this Amalfi Coast villa

P.P.S. If you'd prefer not to receive any future communications from me, please un-subscribe [link deleted].

Rentvillas.com
700 East Main Street
Ventura, CA 93001

ph: 800-726-6702
ph: 805-641-1650
fx: 805-641-1630
www.rentvillas.com

"Providing unique accommodations for authentic European experiences."

Tags: email marketing, bernoff, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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Google "closes the loop" with Doubleclick acquisition

Lots of press about Google's acquisition of Doubleclick. I agree with Steve Rubel's assessment that this means that Google owns the end-to-end marketing relationship, from branding through to search. But also remember Google Checkout, which allows Google to close the loop on not only search but also display ads all the way through to transactions. There are privacy concerns, but if advertisers and publishers agree to this -- and they will because they will each benefit from the synergies created -- it won't be a problem.

(Updated: see below for some thoughts on user privacy)

In my mind, this is the reason why Google was willing to pay the price they did -- I frankly think they would have paid even more in order to make sure they could buy their way into this market. Otherwise, it would have taken YEARS for them to develop a presence in display/brand advertising.

Having locked up the online space, it also means that they can now focus on other areas of advertising -- like their nacent video, radio, and print ad networks.

Updated: Please also see the blog post by my colleague, Shar VanBoskirk on the deal.

Also, a clarification on user privacy. Google has a strong and clear privacy policy, and has taken steps to make clear its intentions on how it will use and store user data. There's been rational points made from some voices in the privacy advocacy community -- namely Lauren Weinstein from the California Initiative For Internet Privacy -- that Google would refrain from creating detailed user profiles, especially to stay in the good graces of its users. My point above is that Google can create user profiles only with the permission of the publishers and advertisers that it serves -- and can benefit from them only if those same parties participate. It's unlikely that anyone in that value chain will want to risk violating user privacy, so only minimal data -- if any -- will be passed between parties.

And as Shar puts so well in our blog post, users in the end are in control. If Google and its partners act inappropriately with our data, we'll take our business elsewhere. Google may be powerful, but there are still many other players and alternatives on the Internet.

Meetup: Web 2.0 Expo and Forrester Web 2.0 Briefing Day

By Charlene Li

Josh and I are going to be at the Web 2.0 Expo conference, and we’ll be joined by our colleague, Oliver Young. If you’ll be there, we hope to meet up with you – here are a couple of ways:

Panels. I’m running two panels, “Media 2.0” on Monday, and “Social Networking” on Tuesday. Oliver is running “Web 2.0 Monetizing and Enabling Customer Centric Product Platforms” on Wednesday.

Meetings. We’re eager to talk with you, either to hear about a new product or service, or to hear about how you’re using Web 2.0 technologies to improve your bottom line. If you won’t be at the Expo, please still get in touch – you can email us directly, although vendors should submit a briefing request at www.forrester.com/briefings (you’ll get more analysts potentially involved in the briefings this way).

Josh would like to find case studies where companies are seeing a return on their use of Web 2.0 technologies – this is for our upcoming book, which will focus on the effectiveness and ROI of social computing. Send him an email directly at jbernoff at forrester dot com.

Oliver is interested in speaking with anyone involved in the enterprise Web 2.0 market – pure plays, incumbent enterprise players, and of course, users. You can email him directly as well at oyoung at forrester dot com.

And I’m interested in seeing examples of how technology is impacting marketing – the conversations that companies have with their customers. I’m especially interested in social networking and community platforms that companies can use, primarily to set up their own social networks, but also to extend their relationships into existing networks like MySpace and Facebook. As always, I’m also eager to try out new technologies and ideas, especially in the consumer space. You can reach me at cli@forrester.com. 

Forrester Web 2.0 Briefing Day.Forrester will be holding its first Web 2.0 Briefing Day on Thursday, April 19 in Foster City, California. This complimentary event is an opportunity for companies to brief several analysts who focus on Web 2.0 trends and technologies – all at the same time and place. Companies can meet with up to three analysts, and can also learn how Forrester is working with companies in the Web 2.0 space. I’m also going to be giving a short talk on the state of Web 2.0. Space is limited, so if you’re interested, send an email to briefingcentral@forrester.com, and request the top 5 analysts you’d like to brief from the list below. An RSVP email will be sent once the request is processed.

Here are the participating analysts and their coverage areas (full profiles are available via the links)

Merv Adrian  - Technology marketing and sales, vendor strategies, application architecture
Josh Bernoff – Web 2.0 and social computing
Jeffrey Hammond - Application design and development tools and techniques
Henry Harteveldt - Travel
Rob Koplowitz – Enterprise content management, blogs, wikis, and collaboration tools
Charlene Li - Web 2.0 and social computing for marketers and consumers
Brad Strothkamp – Financial services
G. Oliver Young – Web 2.0 applications and adoption, especially in the enterprise

Tags: Web20, charleneli, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool . . .

by Josh Bernoff

The quote is remarkably hard to track down (even Yahoo answers and WikiQuote don't have a definitive answer) but best I can tell it's Mark Twain who said:

Better to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.

Today's topic is how automated tools and email in the hands of the lazy can make you look like a fool. And as you well know, with today's connected world, the slightest foolishness (say, a snoring cable installer) can make you famous for being clueless.

I've deleted the names in most of these examples, not because the perpetrators deserve protection, but because there are so many people making these mistakes, it's not fair to single out individuals.

As an analyst I get a lot of PR-type email. 90% of it is harmless -- of no interest to me or, sometimes I think, anyone, so I just delete it. Someone is spending a lot of PR money telling me that their CEO is talking at a conference, or that they finally got a customer. I'm sorry you spend the time to tell me what is not news, but that's okay.

5% is actually interesting to me and I ask for a followup or mark it in some way. My 5% is not the same as your 5%, but email is free, so why not send it to all of us. Figuring out which stuff I should get would take a lot more time than just sending me anything. Hey, I'm sure your time is much more important than mine. In 12 years as an analyst I've gotten on a lot of mailing lists.

The other 5% is the stuff that is actively harmful to PR clients' reputations. There are the sloppy mistakes, like the press releases with the MS Word edit markups still in there (why did they cross out that sentence about having GM as a client? Hmm. Must be a secret). But by far the most interesting are the people who, in an attempt to say "Good morning Josh" and get me to look say something else instead.

For example, I received a missive about a music festival (who put me on that list?) that began this way:

From: [Name deleted to protect the guilty]
Sent: Monday, April 02, 2007 3:32 PM
To: Bernoff, Josh

Subject: Interview Inquiry- [Deleted] Music & Arts Festival

Hey 617 613 57nn

I wanted to let you know about the [Deleted] Apple Music & Arts Festival . . .

Let's do the math. Let's assume that putting my name in the body of the email makes me 5% more likely to read it. So, is it worth that 5% boost when (based on the releases that land in my inbox) there is also a 5% chance you'll make an error and say "Hey 617 617 57nn" and prove yourself to be too lazy to figure out how your own mass email program works? This stands out way more than my name. And you have just "removed all doubt." (The real one had my actual phone number in it.)

Then there was this:

From: [Name deleted]
Sent: Tuesday, March 13, 2007 12:00 PM
Subject: Dinner Invite

Just in case you were planning on attending the CCBN Cable Show in Beijing at the end of this month, I wanted to extend an invitation to you to join [deleted] at a Dinner Banquet on Saturday evening, March 31st, at the . . .

Warm regards, [name deleted]

This sounds nice enough, but notice there is no "To:" line. It was sent to a blind mailing list. I and an unspecified random collection of people must be pretty important to get this dinner invitation, but apparently not important enough to get mailed by name. But I know they think I'm important anyway, because of the "Warm Regards" at the end. By the way, this vendor makes a piece of communications equipment that I use in my house that needed to be rebooted yesterday, maybe they knew this was coming . . .

If you're still reading, good, because I saved the best one for last.

The Consumer Electronics Association sent me a mailing a few weeks ago (they mail all of us who attend their conferences with all manner of stuff, it seems like weekly). They were testing a marketing program for their international conference (CES) next year. Sure, 140,000 people go to CES every year so I don't know why they need to work so hard to market it, but they deserve credit for checking in with us. So I took a little Web survey. One of the choices we were being asked to evaluate in their survey was the graphic shown here.

Charitably, this graphic is a reminder that when you go to CES, the taxi lines are 45 minutes long. Is this really the image they want to reinforce? It's so bad that for the last two years I rented a bicycle.

Uncharitably, look at that graphic again. Doesn't it create an image in your mind that's more closely associated with crowds of World War II era Germans than consumer electronics? Nah, it can't be, after all, she's smiling . . .

Now the Consumer Electronics Association will tell you that this was just a test, and the kind of connotations I'm talking about would never have made it into their official marketing campaign. But they just emailed it to thousands and thousands of people in their survey. How much more public could it be than that?

Everything you do is public. Everything. Every support rep answering a phone call. Every email, mass or individual. Every customer contact. So check it first. Better to keep your mouth shut and remain a fool . . .

Tags: PR blunders, CEA, bernoff, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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The five reasons companies should participate in the Groundswell

by Josh Bernoff

Forrester's corporate clients approach us all the time to ask "Should I do a blog?" or "Should I start a community?" or other similar questions.

Wrong questions. Or at least the wrong place to start.

The corporate world has slowly gone from unware to fearful to, now, curious about how to engage with social networks, what to do about user generated media, how to participate in the blogosphere, and so on. Thanks to books like Citizen Marketers and The Cluetrain Mainfesto awareness is rising. What's still missing, in general, is the why.

Why are you interested in participating? What are your actual goals?

It's in this spirt that I modestly offer this framework: five reasons to participate in the groundswell. These are the five basic objectives a company or other organization can hope to accomplish in the social world. You should pick one or two, then choose your tools and strategies accordingly.

1. LISTENING. Finding out what your customers are really saying. Best tools are brand monitoring, private communities like Communispace, ratings/reviews.

2. SPEAKING. Connecting with your customers in new ways, extending PR and marketing. Best tools are blogs, podcasts, participation in MySpace/YouTube and other user-generated media.

3. ENERGIZING. Getting your best customers to evangelize your products. Best tools are public communities and ratings/reviews.

4. SUPPORTING. Helping customers solve their own and each other's problems. Best tools are blogs, forums, wikis.

5. EMBRACING. Working with your customers to make products better. Best tools are communities, user-generated media.

This may seem very basic to the sophisticates out there in the Web 2.0 community. But I think it's actually the tonic companies need to discipline their thinking about what the heck they're doing in this space.

We're planning on using this to structure the prescriptive portions of the book -- one chapter on each of these objectives, with case studies from companies that are doing it.

I'm very interested in your reaction. I'm looking forward to your comments on our framework. And if your company is pursuing these objectives successfully, we'd love to feature you.

Tags: social computing, bernoff, Forrester Research, Groundswell

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